Uzi, I don't think that anyone has been disagreeing with the point that talent makes a difference.  I know that I have not been disagreeing with that.  But as you have said, it is not enough by itself, and there are other factors involved.

That being said, I will raise a point that I think perhaps may be controversial with the views of some here.

I do not feel that the only reason one should pursue music or the arts is "success".  I feel that music is a form of communication and expression.  There can be pleasure and joy in learning it and playing, even if one does not achieve what some other person may consider "a high degree of skill."

I find it sad that some people allow themselves to be discouraged because they do not feel they have the "talent" necessary to be, within a foreseeable future, an Itzhak Perlman or Hillary Hahn or whatever. 

As if the world should only have a tiny number of musicians, performers, or artists, because only those that someone or other decides "have enough talent" should ever even try?  LOL  That would lead to the eventual conclusion that the only music the world needs would be from one top performer per generation and everyone else needn't bother. 

If one isn't "the next Hemmingway", they shouldn't write at all... If one isn't "the next Rembrandt", then they shouldn't paint... If one is not "the next Bach", then they should never try to compose a piece of music.. If one does not have the voice of a great orator, then they should just shut up and never speak..

I would not care to live in that world.  It might have some great things in it, but it would be very limited in variety, and much good talent would go unused.  It would be a world without Mussorgsky, without Van Gogh.. They never achieved "success" in their own lifetimes.  Many writers, composers, artists, and etc that we consider great in our time never achieved "success" in their own lifetime.

I think it better to pursue music and the arts because one has a love for it and the desire, rather than to close the door on oneself or others because one doubts whether there is sufficient 'talent".  There are many stages and gigs and listeners out there in the world.  Maybe not enough that everyone who tries will "succeed", but far more will be achieved by trying and seeing what one can do than by giving up.

Not saying that talent is not a factor.  But it is one of many factors, and even if "natural talent" may be one that we have little or no control over, we can achieve more by attending to the factors that we can have control over to see what we each can do.

I feel that the "oh if you don't have a huge natural talent, then give it up because you will only fail".. is about the worst attitude one can have about another artist or about ourselves. 

I'll get off the soapbox for now, though.  LOL

@coolpinkone: Well said, Toni! 

I started playing violin because I wanted to try it.  I have continued this far because I enjoy it.  That really is enough reason, right there. 

Music in general and especially the violin in particular are really weird for the concern some people seem to have with "making it" or "being a success" with it.  I don't think that is even a sensible concern, early on.  Take at least a couple years to make sure it is something you're likely to stick with and like well enough to put some work into.  Long enough to at least see if you have a bit of talent for it, and if you *still* enjoy it.

Then maybe think about if you'd like to try playing in a band or combo or maybe a small group for whatever genre you are interested in.  See how you do with that, and then decide if you maybe feel you have what it takes to go further with it.

Seriously.  I recall some people who haven't even gotten a violin yet (like where they're still waiting on it to get delivered) worrying about if they are starting "too late in life to ever be a success at it".

Good grief, that's kinda like somebody who has only just signed up for a first-aid class asking if they are too old to become a doctor.  Sure, it can be done.  There are people who have become medical doctors and even specialists rather late in life.  They had to work their tail off, and dedicate a whole lot of time and sink some serious money into getting the necessary education and experience.  Even for people who have the advantages of youth and money, it is not easy. 

I pick that as an example, not only because it is definitely an "expert" field, but because I knew someone years ago who had done it, starting at I think it was 35 yrs old. She took a first-aid class because it seemed like a good thing to know and decided she liked it.  It interested her, and she liked the idea of knowing what to do in emergencies and such.  Took the more advanced class at a local college.  Then took EMT training and worked as an EMT for a while.  Worked her way through nursing classes and certification.  Then, with the encouragement from a doctor whose office she worked in as a nurse, she took her shot at med school.  As I recall, she was about 50 before she graduated.  But she did "make it".  She shared the office of the doctor who had encouraged her for a few years and then moved and started her own private practice.   

I also recall her mentioning more than once that she had never seriously considered becoming a doctor until after she'd become a nurse.  Didn't think she could do it.  Didn't think she could ever afford it.  When she started that journey, the first aid class just looked interesting, and maybe something that might come in useful once in a while.  It wasn't even a dream until someone already expert in the field told her that she did indeed have the talent for it and repeatedly encouraged her to consider working towards it.  At that point she had already become a professional of at least some degree.

I don't think there's anything wrong with trying something, seeing what you can do, and working your way into it.  Just because you are interested.  Just because you enjoy it.  Decide if you're going to try making money at it after you've proven to yourself that you can stick with it and still enjoy it. 

Nothing wrong with dreaming big either, at any point.  But I think it is a bad move to try and evaluate your own talent and/or chances when you are only a year or two in.  At that point, we just don't know enough.  Give it some time and see what you can do.  See if you stick with it and enjoy it.

I think the biggest question that a beginner can consider that can do them good is "Am I going to play today?"  That is the one that will probably have the biggest effect on progress.

As Toni said,

"NO ONE REALLY KNOWS… not one person knows our destiny as violinists."

So give yourself a chance.  Be willing to consider that maybe within a few years, you'll be able to play rather well.  That somewhere down the road people who hear you may even think you are great.  Keep the door open and be willing to accept excellence if you can manage to achieve it.